The book was published in multiple languages including English, consists of 401 pages and is available in Hardcover format. Home > Book Summary - The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable The Black Swan is the 2nd book in the five-book series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on uncertainty. Reviewed in the United States on April 19, 2016. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The term black swan was a Latin expression: its oldest reference is in the poet Juvenal's expression that "a good person is as rare as a black swan" ("rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno", 6.165). The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Think of the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001: had the risk been reasonably conceivable on … * The highly expected not happening is also a Black Swan. Part One and the beginning of Part Two delve into psychology. Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer: for example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. She published her book on the web and was discovered by a small publishing company; they published her unedited work and the book became an international bestseller. So, she experienced two black swans. He does this by throwing in big names and like I said doing a very shoddy job of covering principles and ideas throughout history that you can tell he got from listening to an introductory 5 min video on youtube or something. He describes history as opaque, essentially a black box of cause and effect. He really harps, literally every 5 pages, on how the bell-curve is Satan's brainchild. Talk:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb EPUB The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Nassim Taleb. He says that the bell-curve doesn't predict black swans, i.e. This detailed literature summary also contains Topics for Discussion on The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It also analyzes reviews to verify trustworthiness. Free download or read online The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable pdf (ePUB) (Incerto Series) book. Reviewed in the United States on October 17, 2017. He believes it's his superior wit and intellect that just makes all these "frauds" writhe at the mere sight of him. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. Free shipping for many products! A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Buy The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Unabridged by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (ISBN: 0889290378286) from Amazon's Book Store. Addressing narrative-fallacy and confirmation-bias, we're mind altering favorites. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. De Zwarte Zwaan: De impact van het hoogst onwaarschijnlijke is een boek van Nassim Nicholas Taleb.. De Zwarte Zwaan staat daarin voor onvoorspelbare gebeurtenissen die een enorme impact hebben en achteraf aannemelijk en voorspelbaar worden gemaakt.. Taleb betoogt dat Zwarte Zwanen in toenemende mate de geschiedenis bepalen door de toenemende complexiteit van de samenleving. Chapter four brings together the topics discussed earlier into a narrative about a turkey before Thanksgiving who is fed and treated well for many consecutive days, only to be slaughtered and served as a meal. Taleb addresses science and business in the latter half of Part Two and Part Three. ", There is a contradiction; this book is a story, and I prefer to use stories and vignettes to illustrate our gullibility about stories and our preference for the dangerous compression of narratives.... You need a story to displace a story. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. His stories about his buddy buddy experiences with Mandelbrot leave you wanting to puke if they are real and also pissed that you wasted 5 pages on thinking about something that probably didn't even happen. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. [28] Giles Foden, writing for The Guardian in 2007, described the book as insightful, but facetiously written, saying that Taleb's "dumbed-down" style was a central problem, especially in comparison to his earlier book, Fooled by Randomness. Reviewed in the United States on September 5, 2017. He gives a cursory brush to many topics that you can tell he has heard about once and his explanation is the extent of his knowledge on them. He opens out eyes to the value of the antifragile. The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Krasnova became famous. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. One last thing he talks about attending conferences (that he presumably paid to be at) and asking the presenters "the hard questions" and being immensely bored with their "gaussian" attitudes, but first he probably doesn't even have to be there, if he's bored just leave don't write a book about it, second, I don't know if they are tough questions Nassim or it is your demeanor and pomp that allegedly made these intellectual giants boil with rage at him. [7][8], The second chapter discusses a neuroscientist named Yevgenia Nikolayevna Krasnova, who rejects the distinction between fiction and nonfiction, and her book A Story of Recursion. Part one: Umberto Eco's anti-library, or how we seek validation. Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. Great eye opener for those who love psyche transformation and are curious about how deep the integrity (structural not just truth) rabbit hole goes. Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. With over 1,000 reviews already don't think I can add much beyond that I really enjoyed this book, Probably should have read the 2nd edition but I picked up the 1st one cheap and still found it very worthwhile. A BLACK SWAN is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Your recently viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to search in. "Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence", "9 Books About Your Life That Will Make Your Life better", "Yevgenia Krasnova - the Gem of a Black Swan", "All in a Flap: Beware of Unknown Unknowns", "Why You Should Prepare For Disaster (And How To Do It)", "The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility. Help others learn more about this product by uploading a video! [3] Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective financial models. The first 200 pages rehash the same thing and are mind-numbingly redundant: Uncertainty is uncertain, the world is uncertain, and we should, and this is one of many parts where it gets self-contradictory and vague, be aware of uncertainty that under his method can't be perceived except after the fact. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. This book is terrible for countless reasons. Taleb has made his living (and a small fortune, now transformed into a large fortune by the 2008 market) in an unusual way -- by financial speculation in contexts where he spots a … Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. The Black Swan was dedicated to Mandelbrot. [20] Hume's attack against induction and causation is based primarily on the limits of everyday experience and so too, the limitations of scientific knowledge. The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. This is such an impressive book that I could not put it down. Excellent writer well written speaks with truth and wisdom. Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. Ships from and sold by Adam'sBooksUSA. The point of this metaphor is that all known swans were white until the discovery of black swans in Australia. Not all swans are white, and not all events, no matter what the experts think, are predictable. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (1st (first) Edition) [Hardcover(2007)], Random House; 1st edition (April 17, 2007). Notices of the American Mathematical Society, "Abbreviated List of Factual and Logical Mistakes in Gregg Easterbrook's Review of The Black Swan in, Slideshow lecture explaining the Ludic Fallacy with clarity By Peter Taylor of Oxford University, Nassim Taleb podcast interview on The Black Swan, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable&oldid=997237433, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 30 December 2020, at 16:27. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) & 0 more 4.2 out of 5 stars 1,445 ratings [9] The book goes on to reveal that the so-called author is a work of fiction, based in part on Taleb. After viewing product detail pages, look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in. I immediately obtained Antifragile and am enjoying it immensely.. Taleb has referred to the book as an essay or a narrative with one single idea: "our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations. Nassim Nicholas Taleb built arguments to support his thesis of empirical skepticism, a different … Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. [21] As of December 2020, it has been cited approximately 10,633 times, 9,000 of which are for the English-language edition. Free shipping for many products! Reviewed in the United States on February 21, 2017. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Full content visible, double tap to read brief content. [29] The Nobel Prize–winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman wrote "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works" and explains the influence in his own 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow. [10], The third chapter introduces the concepts of Extremistan and Mediocristan. He plays towards disgruntled feelings, of most likely the average person, by saying how misled and mistreated everyone is by some elite scholarly class. Very entertaining writer for heavy subject matter! The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable de Taleb, Nassim Nicholas sur AbeBooks.fr - ISBN 10 : 0713999950 - ISBN 13 : 9780713999952 - Allen Lane - 2007 - Couverture rigide This example may be used to demonstrate either deductive or inductive reasoning; however, neither form of reasoning is infallible, since in inductive reasoning, the premises of an argument may support a conclusion, but do not ensure it, and similarly, in deductive reasoning, an argument is dependent on the truth of its premises. Mathematics professor David Aldous argued that "Taleb is sensible (going on prescient) in his discussion of financial markets and in some of his general philosophical thought, but tends toward irrelevance or ridiculous exaggeration otherwise. It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list. Nasim Nicholas Taleb is a well-known voice in the subject areas of risk, randomness, and uncertainty. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Summary & Study Guide Nassim Taleb This Study Guide consists of approximately 34 pages of chapter summaries, quotes, character analysis, themes, and more - everything you need to sharpen your knowledge of The Black Swan. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Nassim Nicholas Taleb ’sThe Black Swan is a fascinating but deeply flawed book. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Audible Audiobook – Unabridged Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author), David Chandler (Narrator), Recorded Books (Publisher) & 0 more 4.2 out of 5 stars 1,445 ratings Something went wrong. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events - and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Aristotle's "Prior Analytics" is the most likely original reference that makes use of example syllogisms involving the predicates "white", "black", and "swan." Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white". Seriously, anyone versed in any of these subjects will be able to tell after reading a little bit that the guy that is shouting phony at everyone else is actually the biggest phony of anyone. The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Prime members enjoy FREE Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series, and Kindle books. The book practically tells you nothing, especially not what you would expect from 300 pages. Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. There was a problem loading your book clubs. Trust no one! Being no expert in finance not sure how much 'actionable intelligence' I was able to gain in terms of investment ideas but his work does apply to many other fields. He thinks very highly of himself, but downplays it throughout the book in the subterfuge of a demagogue. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Paperback – 28 Feb. 2008 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author) 4.3 out of 5 stars 2,188 ratings #1 … I really don't know what he means by this, it's like he doesn't have any understanding of a probability distribution or confidence intervals. He brushes the uncertainty principle of physics aside without any real thoughtful or coherent critique, this happens throughout the book, but just when I thought it couldn't get any worse this was the real kicker. Warning: both books require rereading as they are conceptually quite dense. Please choose a different delivery location or purchase from another seller. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, expert on risk and randomness, discusses "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," presented by Harvard Book Store. “It is easy to see that life is the cumulative effect of a handful of [largely unpredictable] significant shocks.” The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events (outliers) and humans tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable [Chinese Edition] at the best online prices at eBay! To calculate the overall star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don’t use a simple average. But her next book fails. What You Do Not Know Black Swan logic makes what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new at the best online prices at eBay! The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable José Suárez-Lledó Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economic Analysis, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for BLACK SWAN: IMPACT OF HIGHLY IMPROBABLE By Nassim Nicholas Taleb at the best online prices at eBay! [1], The book is part of Taleb's five volume series, titled the Incerto including Fooled by Randomness (2001), The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018).[2]. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it … One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect. Jump to navigation Jump to search. "A critical review of Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. ‘The Black Swan’ is an interesting and unusual book, written in an unusual style by an unusual author. Likewise, not matching the idea of success … The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. Nassim Taleb. The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto), Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto), Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto), Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (Wiley Finance), Reclaim Your Heart: Personal Insights on breaking free from life's shackles, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto), Rippling: How Social Entrepreneurs Spread Innovation Throughout the World. Andere boeken zijn beschikbaar voor Amazon Kindle the third chapter introduces the concepts Extremistan. 'S brainchild them as guides to define the predictability of the twelve most influential since... 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